Geopolitical markets
Macro narratives involving equities, commodities, and indices.
Taiwan Strait Crisis
Thesis: China invades Taiwan. TSMC shuts down. Everything dependent on Taiwan chips dies. US fabs survive.
| Long | Short |
|---|---|
| INTC (40%) | NVDA (40%) |
| AMD (30%) | AAPL (35%) |
| ORCL (30%) | TSLA (25%) |
Leverage: 3x
Why it matters: TSMC makes >50% of the world's chips. A blockade or invasion would be the largest supply chain shock in history. This market lets you bet on reshoring vs dependency.
AI Bubble Pop
Thesis: NVDA trades at 50x earnings. AI capex collapses. Hype was overstated. Value and safe havens win.
| Long | Short |
|---|---|
| GOLD (35%) | NVDA (55%) |
| INTC (30%) | META (25%) |
| COIN (20%) | GOOGL (20%) |
| MSTR (15%) |
Leverage: 2x
Why it matters: AI concentration is extreme. When bubbles pop, correlation goes to 1. This market targets the unwind.
Middle East Oil Shock
Thesis: Regional war closes the Strait of Hormuz. Oil hits $150. Risk assets get destroyed. Commodities and energy win.
| Long | Short |
|---|---|
| OIL (50%) | SPX (50%) |
| GOLD (30%) | AAPL (30%) |
| XOM (20%) | TSLA (20%) |
Leverage: 2x
Why it matters: 20% of global oil flows through Hormuz. A closure would be an instant supply shock. This market hedges against that scenario.
Risk On / Risk Off
Thesis: Markets panic. High-beta bleeds out. Money runs to gold and Bitcoin. Flight to safety.
| Long | Short |
|---|---|
| BTC (60%) | ETH (40%) |
| GOLD (40%) | SOL (35%) |
| ARB (25%) |
Leverage: 3x
Why it matters: In risk-off environments, speculative assets die first. BTC and gold act as safe havens. This market lets you trade the risk regime shift.
Trading hours
Geopolitical markets use equity synthetics. They only trade during US market hours: Mon–Fri 9:30am–4pm ET.