Understanding markets
What is a market
A market is a tradeable narrative.
Not a ticker. Not a pair. A thesis about the world expressed as a leveraged long/short basket.
Structure
Every market has:
| Field | Description |
|---|---|
| Name | The narrative (e.g., "AI Bubble Pop") |
| Description | The thesis in one line |
| Category | geopolitical or crypto |
| Leverage | 2x or 3x |
| Long leg | Assets that win if thesis is true |
| Short leg | Assets that lose if thesis is true |
YES vs NO
YES = You agree with the thesis. You go long the long leg, short the short leg.
NO = You disagree. The legs flip. You short what would be long, long what would be short.
Example
Taiwan Strait Crisis
Thesis: China invades Taiwan. TSMC shuts down. US fabs survive.
| Side | Long | Short |
|---|---|---|
| YES | INTC, AMD, ORCL | NVDA, AAPL, TSLA |
| NO | NVDA, AAPL, TSLA | INTC, AMD, ORCL |
If you think the invasion happens, click YES. If you think it won't (or TSMC survives), click NO.
Weights
Baskets have weighted allocations. Not equal weight.
Example composition:
- INTC: 40%
- AMD: 30%
- ORCL: 30%
Your $1000 position becomes:
- $400 INTC
- $300 AMD
- $300 ORCL
The weights reflect the market designer's view on relative importance.
Categories
Geopolitical
Macro narratives. Taiwan, oil shocks, AI bubbles. Often involve synthetic equities (AAPL, NVDA, GOLD).
Trading hours: Weekdays 9:30am–4pm ET (when equity markets are open).
Crypto
Pure crypto narratives. ETH vs BTC, SOL surge, HYPE momentum.
Trading hours: 24/7.
Market status
Markets can be:
- Active — tradeable now
- Inactive — temporarily unavailable
Common reasons for inactive:
- Market hours (equities closed on weekends)
- Liquidity issues
- Maintenance
The UI shows status and reason if unavailable.